https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range ... migration/
Opening Weekend Range: $32M-$42M
Domestic Total Range: $105M-$168M
PROS:
With a slim release slate lacking many major event films toward the end of the holiday season, this sequel is theoretically in a prime position to draw general audiences.
The first film was a surprise blockbuster, earning $335 million domestically and $1.15 billion globally amidst a similarly modest late December theatrical slate in 2018.
CONS:
The general audience appetite for comic book movies has evolved and narrowed substantially in the five years since the first Aquaman came out. DC films have seen a particularly sharp decline with under-performances by Shazam! Fury of the Gods and Blue Beetle this year.
Early pre-sales are pacing 25 percent ahead of the aforementioned Shazam! sequel and 62 percent behind Black Adam after one day of sample market tracking. The holiday release pattern could skew one-to-one comparisons in certain models.
(that's pure speculation though... but still)